Date:         Sat, 3 May 1997 14:01:48 -0700
Sender:       Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@vanagon.com>
From:         mholser@Adobe.COM (Malcolm Holser)
Subject:      Re: Power Window Switch

> P.S. the overpriced Syncro Westy is getting cheaper!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

I agree.  I feel there are several reasons, as well.  First, all of these
are now outside the "newer used" car age.  Most new car dealers will not
sell any car this old.  Most dealers that offer warranties don't like older
cars, either, unless they have a reputation for being either bombproof or
cheap to fix.  Sadly the Syncro does not rate on either count.  I'd sure
hate to offer any warranty.  With most new-car dealers' used lots not
taking these, they become sold only through individuals and small used car
places mainly -- buyer beware spots, where the values are not high.  The
new car dealers will typically sell any cars this old to brokers, who 
will eventually auction them at dealer auctions.  All of this tends to 
quickly drop the value of cars older than five or six years.  All Syncros
fall into this, while the older Vanagons are now pushing 18.  Not exactly
sexy vehicles, all of the VW dealers I am aware of have dumped them from 
their lots.  Used car dealers want fast moving cars, and while some of us
really love Syncros, not much of the buying public does.

There are several used car prices guides, the "Kelly Blue Book" is the
most widespread and common, but Edmunds is not far behind.  Kelly lists
"retail" values -- what you expect to pay at a dealer, and "wholesale"
values -- what you expect to get if *you* sell the car to a dealer.  The
Kelly guide specifically states that the prices quoted for retail include
the costs of bringing the vehicle up to basically perfect condition, and 
the cost of offering a warranty.  You can judge the cost of repairs for
a typical vehicle by looking at the difference between the wholesale and
retail prices.  Vanagon Syncro Westfalias have the largest difference I've
seem, although I'd imagine Jaguars are worse.

When you own a vehicle like a Syncro (I do), you want to believe the retail
value is what it is worth.  But individuals should never hope to get anywhere
near retail -- they *cannot* offer a good warranty as a minimum reason.

The Kelly *wholesale* price on these is more reasonable as to what to expect.
There is a dealer in Santa Rosa, California that offers fully prepped and
warrantied Syncro Westies at full retail Bluebook, so I guess it does happen.

The other price guides -- several others, including Edmunds -- all agree on
values, and these are far, far below what we see being asked on the list.  
But they might be more realistic, too.  Most of the ones I've looked at (I 
am looking for another) have not sold for very long times.  An '89 in LA 
took several months to sell and then sold to a list member for $5700.
Wish I'd have gotten that one.

Most of the guides list between $7000 and $12000 for retail, about what Kelly
lists for wholesale.

All that though, is pretty meaningless.  These are not commodity vehicles, but
rather specialized.  People that are interested and wanting one usually
*really* want one, but they are far and few between.  Price guides are pretty
worthless for this kind of vehicle, as they get scewed lower than you would
expect by the poor van sitting on a lot far from the few interested buyers that
gets sold for a song.  LA is *not* such a place, however, so the $5700 one
was not quite such a fluke.

I'm still looking.  I want an '87 (my wife wants a later one, though).  But I'm
not interested in paying $20k.  The syncro is nice and cool, but a rather
expensive cool to maintain.  They are nice in the snow, but a pretty expensive
nice-in-the-snow.  Most of the guides only give a Syncro about a $1500 advantage
over a regular one, but the sellers seem to want a 2X difference.  The guides,
including Kelly, have a big deduction for a non-functional front drive -- the
car is worth less than a 2wd version in their estimate.  With the costs of
repairs, this is probably true.

I'll try to look at the '87 in Palo Alto next week, but with tranny problems
the $10 asking price may be too high for me.

malcolm